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How to know when Trump will back down

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at the White House on Jan. 27, 2026. | Evan Vucci/AP

“Trump always chickens out,” goes the popular anti-Trump slogan, often pithily abbreviated as “TACO” by the president’s detractors.

The past week has supplied ample evidence to support this theory of Trumpian trepidation, with the president first backing away from his threats to forcibly claim Greenland as U.S. territory, and then gradually backpedaling on the more aggressive elements of the administration’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota after federal officers shot and killed a protester over the weekend.

But the president’s recent reversals also suggest that the “TACO” slogan doesn’t get it exactly right. For politicians and policymakers seeking to understand him, it’s important to recognize that Trump doesn’t always back down — but he often will under specific circumstances.

It doesn’t make as tidy an acronym, but it’s increasingly proving to be true: When confronted with certain types of pushback — or a particular constellation of overlapping elements of resistance— Trump does seem inclined to reverse course.

One year into Trump’s second term, clear patterns have begun to emerge. Four categories of feedback seem to be especially effective at convincing Trump to change course: Widespread pushback from MAGA Republicans and their allies; wobbly markets, and especially bond markets; opposition from adversaries who confront Trump with unity and strength rather than supplication; and, finally, skepticism from conservative media figures who penetrate Trump’s notoriously insular information bubble.

In circumstances where he encounters more than one of these varieties of resistance, Trump frequently wavers. Consider his recent about-face on Greenland: Trump’s initial refusal to rule out military force sent markets tumbling, prompted public head-scratching from self-proclaimed MAGA allies in Europe and was met with unusually forceful resistance from European leaders, who banded together to oppose the move. Those three forces came to a head at the Global Economic Forum in Davos, and Trump backed down from the threat of using force.

Or look at the lead-up to Trump’s pivot on the administration’s increasingly lethal immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota. After senior members of the Trump administration jumped on the opportunity to vilify Alex Pretti, the protester killed by Border Patrol agents, a handful of Republicans who typically avoid clashing with Trump began to subtly signal their disapproval with the administration’s aggressive tactics and sharp-edged rhetoric.

They were joined by prominent figures from Trump’s preferred media ecosystem, like Fox News host Maria Bartiromo, who raised pointed questions about the administration’s account of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by Border Patrol Officers in Minneapolis. After hearing Bartiromo’s on-air criticisms of the administration’s immigration hard-liners, Trump softened his stance and deployed his “border czar” Tom Homan to take over command from Border Patrol officials.

Both these episodes harken back to the situation that first gave rise to the “TACO” slogan: Trump’s walking back of his punishing “Liberation Day” tariffs last spring. Trump’s made-for-television declaration of a new global trade war spooked global markets — including bond markets, which Trump monitors closely to gauge the success of his economic policy. It also unsettled MAGA allies on Capitol Hill, who publicly aired their concerns that the tariff increases would hit consumers’ wallets. Bada-bing, bada-boom: Trump reversed course (while still landing on historically high tariff rates).

There are, of course, some necessary caveats to these categories. For instance, Trump seems largely indifferent to criticism from “Never Trumpers” or moderate Republicans — like Sens. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Tom Tillis, all of whom routinely rebuff the president to little actual effect. For criticisms to really get through to Trump, they need to originate from Trump’s MAGA loyalists, who have carefully honed elaborate rhetorical strategies for signaling their displeasure with Trump’s policies without actually criticizing the president himself.

Although Trump seems to respond to opponents who stand up to him with force, that “force” doesn’t always look like blustery confrontation. New York City Mayor and self-proclaimed democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani managed to disarm Trump with charm during their much-talked-about Oval Office meeting in November, prompting Trump to back off his more aggressive threats to target the Big Apple. Mamdani’s approach wasn’t forceful per se, but it stood in stark contrast to the mealy-mouthed supplication that many law firms, universities and corporations tried to use to placate Trump early in his term — and which seemed to embolden Trump rather than deter him.

Still, the past week has helped flesh out something like a playbook for changing Trump’s mind. If Trump meets two or more of these types of resistance, you can be pretty sure that a change is gonna come.

Welcome to POLITICO Forecast. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at forecast@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at iward@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) @ianwardreports.

Trump threatens Iran with ‘massive armada’: President Donald Trump amped up pressure on Iran on Wednesday,highlighting a “massive Armada” recently deployed to the region to force Tehran to the bargaining table over a deal that would end its nuclear weapons program. The president’s social media post is the latest show of force in the international arena for a White House emboldened by a successful military operation in Caracas, Venezuela. “It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”

EU Parliament eyes US trade deal approval with Trump-proof safeguards: The European Parliament’s three largest political groups are discussing new safeguards against Trump in a bid to break a deadlock over approving the EU-U.S. trade deal, according to two lawmakers and three officials familiar with the talks. Center-left and liberal lawmakers are asking for a clause to be included in legislation currently before the house that would void the deal if Trump restarts his threats against the territorial sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark.

Poll: Trump voters support military intervention in more countries: President Donald Trump’s MAGA base, known for its aversion to U.S. involvement in foreign wars, has embraced the administration’s aggressive use of military force abroad and would strongly support more. A new POLITICO poll reveals 65 percent of Trump voters support the U.S. taking military action against at least one of several potential target countries, including Iran, Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, China and Mexico. And one stands out: Iran. About 50 percent of Trump voters backed military intervention in the country, the most of any foreign target. That number rose to 61 percent of respondents who described themselves as “MAGA Republican” Trump supporters.

Rubio walks NATO tightrope after Trump’s Greenland gambit: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to do two things at once in testimony to senators Wednesday: take the temperature down after Trump rattled NATO by seeking to acquire Greenland, and deliver Trump’s message that the alliance must change. Rubio’s tightrope walk was on display at a sometimes-testy Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, where senators pressed him to repair frayed ties with Denmark and other allies. The moment underscored how Rubio — sometimes seen as the most pro-European of Trump’s top team — balances the administration’s America First views.

The amount, in Swiss francs (€33billion), that Switzerland’s Federal Council plans to spend to strengthen security and defense capabilities “in view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation.” The government announced today that Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense spending.

A Nvidia chip is displayed at the Mobile World Congress in Shanghai on June 26, 2024. | AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. may lead the world in artificial intelligence at the moment, but critics question whether the Trump administration may have just handed China a major advantage in the AI race.

In December, the U.S. relaxed export controls on powerful AI chips, allowing tech giant Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China — America’s stiffest competition in the AI boom. While the U.S. will collect 25 percent of the sales revenue, the move could also turbocharge China’s AI industry. Advanced chips are the “missing piece to [China’s] AI puzzle,” said Janet Egan, a senior research fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. And with that piece in hand, Egan said, China is now poised to thwart America’s AI dominance.

To understand the national security issues surrounding the sale of advanced chips to China, Forecast caught up with Egan, who studies the national security risks of AI systems.

Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to sell its second-most-powerful chip to China runs counter to years of policy designed to slow China’s technological advancement. What’s the logic driving this decision?

To try and steelman the other side, I think the argument is that we can slow China’s indigenization by increasing demand for U.S. chips, rather than domestically manufactured Chinese chips. And it means that every additional dollar of money spent on chips is flowing into U.S. companies, not Chinese companies. There’s also been some narrative of hooking companies on the U.S. tech stack — that these chips are addictive, and that once people start using them, they won’t use others.

But I really disagree with those three points. If we look at China’s history with semiconductors, for over a decade now, they’ve been investing massive amounts of funding, both at the national and state level … Injecting more chips into the ecosystem won’t actually reduce demand and reduce incentives for China to indigenize the ecosystem.

The argument about additional revenue going to U.S. companies — this is, I think, the strongest point that has been made to Trump. Private sector companies are rightfully acting in private-sector interests. But I think it’s important to pass through and say, “Look, no, that’s a private sector narrative. The national interest isn’t there.”

These new export policies do have safeguard provisions in place, like blocking prohibited end users — such as military-linked entities — from accessing the chips. But how likely are these safeguards to hold? What’s to stop the Chinese military from gaining access anyways?

It seems virtually impossible to enforce most of these safeguards. Once you export a chip to China, it’s very hard to tell the Chinese entity that has imported that chip what they can and can’t do with that chip — who they can give it to, who they can rent it to.

Particularly with AI, we’re seeing this growing fusion of private sector and government uses because it’s such a dual-use technology. We see this in the U.S., with the massive Pentagon contracts rolling out to a number of leading AI companies. In China as well, we see even small AI firms doing a lot of business with the People’s Liberation Army. We also need to accept that China has this civil-military fusion strategy, which essentially removes any clear distinction between private sector interests and military interests.

What’s the worst-case scenario for the U.S. here?

We equip China to compete at the very frontier of AI with us. At the moment there’s a gap, and that gap means that the U.S. is the best in the world at AI models. But if we give China the one missing piece to their AI puzzle, that’s just bad for national security.

Several recent reports assert that Chinese customs officials blocked shipments of the H200 chips, and Chinese tech firms were warned by government officials not to buy the chips unless it was necessary. What’s going on here?

Different people in the Chinese government have very different perspectives on AI progress and timelines. If you come from the perspective that transformative AI is a long way away, you might be willing to say, “Look, we’ll take the hit now and just keep prioritizing our own indigenous investment in our supply chains.”

The second issue here is it must be very hard for national champions like Huawei and SMIC to tell the Chinese government that they are that far behind where U.S. companies are. These companies have gotten massive investments from the Chinese government, massive sources of public funding, massive support. There’s probably a little lack of clarity around where Chinese progress is up to.

And the third is, we’ve seen this tactic with China before: increasing the ambiguity of the rules when they want to have the flexibility to ramp up and ramp down as they see fit.

Source: POLITICO

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How the Russian Plague Could Spread

In December 2019, I remember watching TV and seeing the Chinese government weld shut doors to apartment buildings in its cities to stop COVID from spreading. I then watched with growing horror as the US and other Western countries refused to close their borders with the goal of slowing the spread of the pandemic. What followed were outbreaks in Italy, Seattle and then everywhere. It’s true that shutting down air travel and closing borders wouldn’t have prevented the spread of the disease, but it most certainly would have bought time and that – in turn – would have saved lives. Incredibly, international flights to India kept kept running in 2021 after the Delta variant first appeared there and that spread globally too.

There’s a couple of lessons I hope Western governments have learned from COVID. First, you cannot trust dictatorships without checks and balances to tell you what’s going on or to protect global public health. Countries like China are run by a small elite that couldn’t care less about its own citizens, let alone those in the rest of the world. Second, in the absence of reliable information, you should err on the side of caution and aggressively shut down air travel with afflicted countries. That doesn’t eliminate the risk of things spinning out of control, but it does buy time.

So here we are. There’s a weird plague in Russia and – big surprise – Putin’s crack team of public health officials are telling the world to chill, even as there’s conflicting reports of mass quarantines and lockdowns. Much like in the early stages of COVID, we don’t know what’s going on. The absolute first priority for Western governments should be to shut down air travel to anywhere with heavy Russian tourism, beyond obviously shutting down all direct travel with Russia. Turkey got almost seven million Russian tourists in 2025. Thailand got two million. These places should be top of the list for Western travel bans and possible suspension of air service.

The six charts above show quarterly data for Russian tourist arrivals in Turkey (top left), Thailand (top middle), Japan (top right), South Korea (bottom left), Italy (bottom middle) and the US (bottom right). The vertical red line denotes Q1 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, which caused many Western countries to clamp down on tourism from Russia. Places like Turkey and Thailand benefitted from this and have become top tourism destinations for Russians. If whatever is going on gets out, chances are good it’ll be via one of these places.

The six charts above are on different scales because tourism from Russia varies widely at this point. The chart above puts all places where I’ve been able to find arrivals data from Russia on the same scale. Turkey (TR) is the single biggest destination by far. It’s followed by Thailand (TH), Italy (IT), South Korea (KR), Japan (JP), Germany (DE), the US, Singapore (SG), Cyprus (CY), Finland (FI) and Vietnam (VN). I think it’s fair to say that Turkey and Thailand are the single biggest risk factors for Western countries, besides obviously travelers coming directly from Russia.

I sincerely hope this plague turns out to be nothing. But if this is something big, I hope the lessons from 2020 have been learned. You can’t trust places like China or Russia and need to isolate them as aggressively and as early as possible.

Source: Robin J Brooks

Meloni slams Trump’s ‘very risky’ deal

Presented by YouTube By JAMES ANGELOS and GIORGIO LEALI with AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES, GREGORIO SORGI and HANNE COKELAERE

Presented by YouTube

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HALLO! James Angelos in Berlin teaming up with my colleague Giorgio Leali, who this afternoon spotted Michel Barnier at Gare du Nord in Paris and then Marine Le Pen at Gare du Midi in Brussels. Politicians, they take trains just like us!

BREAKING IN BRUSSELS: Draft European Council conclusions seen by POLITICO reveal EU governments are trying to water down earlier commitments to secure a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget by the end of the year.

Who’s behind it: France, Italy and several other countries urged Council President António Costa’s team to drop a reference to “reaching a final agreement by the end of the year” from the conclusions, per two EU diplomats.

What’s the rush: Some governments fear time pressure will undermine their leverage in negotiations.

Costa can’t wait: Costa has been pushing leaders to finalize negotiations during a summit in December — before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail talks — and was expected to do so again tomorrow and Friday, when leaders gathering in Brussels give their first reactions to the Irish Council presidency’s proposal to slash €159 billion from the bloc’s next budget.

**A message from YouTube: Creators aren’t just stars – they’re entrepreneurs. In 2025, YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed over €8.4 billion to the EU’s GDP, but creators often feel isolated from decision making processes. Our report, Creative Capital, shares the views of 20,000 European creators on how to support their full potential.**

MELONI: NO MORE PRESENTS FOR PUTIN

RISKY BUSINESS: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni fired a clear shot in U.S. President Donald Trump’s direction today, telling Italian lawmakers the White House is working against European interests with its “very risky” deal to buy diesel from Russia.

Whose fault is it anyway? “We must be aware that the surge in fuel prices is primarily due to the war in Iran, not the conflict in Ukraine,” said Meloni. Trump’s new plan, she went on, “legitimizes Moscow” and “provides new revenue to finance the war; and it implicitly weakens the pressure applied by sanctions.”

Setting the tone: Meloni’s comments are an effort to set the tone for tomorrow’s European Council summit discussion on beefing up sanctions against Russia and targeting the Kremlin’s oil revenues. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argues the answer to Trump’s move must be additional European sanctions.

Whisperer no more: Meloni’s comments are particularly striking given she — and Merz — tried to be Europe’s go-to “Trump whisperers,” but never seemed to master the art of bringing the American president into the European fold through a mix of flattery and cajoling.

That was then: But that was before the U.S. joined Israel in waging a war against Iran that has sent global energy prices skyrocketing. Merz is now less deferential to Trump, while Meloni’s relationship with him is at times downright hostile.

Going it alone: European leaders will tomorrow try to hash out a joint strategy for how to respond to Trump’s deal with Putin, but Meloni’s attack today does not mean they see much upside in taking a confrontational approach to Trump. Even Meloni called “Euro-Atlantic unity” a pillar of her government’s policy.

EU, not E3: Meloni also called on EU member countries to choose an “authoritative figure” to bring “Europe’s voice” to negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. She then took a swipe at the E3 — France, Germany and the U.K. — for playing this role without a clear mandate.

Gift giving: A Europe divided on how to even bring itself to negotiations, she added, “presents a childish image of itself,” serving as a “real gift” to Putin. “And we’ve given Moscow enough gifts as it is these days.”

MORE TROUBLE FOR SÁNCHEZ

LEFT IN DISARRAY: Spain’s fractured far left has until 11:59 p.m. Friday to register electoral coalitions ahead of next month’s election. Should infighting scupper their ability to band together before that deadline, it could doom Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s chances of securing a new governing majority.

Tough times for Pedro: POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts the center-right People’s Party at 33% and far-right Vox at 18%, which looks like enough for a right-wing majority. Sánchez’s Socialists are at 26%, and with the fragmented far left in single digits, there’s no clear road to victory — unless they work together.

The People’s Front of Judea: After Sánchez called snap elections on Nov. 29, Sumar proposed a so-called Broad Front, bringing together rival Podemos and progressive separatists like the Republican Left of Catalonia. But no one can agree on who should lead them.

The Judean People’s Front: Many hoped Gabriel Rufián, the far left’s most popular figure according to polls, would step in to lead the coalition. Instead, he announced a rival left-wing alliance with Podemos. Both parties are refusing to join the Broad Front, urging other left-wing groups to rally behind them instead.

Context clues: Juan Carlos Monedero, who co-founded Podemos in 2014, told POLITICO major left-wing coalitions only work when there’s “a citizenry that demands them, leadership that drives them and novel circumstances that create the right context.” Those preconditions, he argued, “aren’t fully met right now,” in part because “there is no one with the necessary authority to successfully achieve that unity.”

Band-Aids don’t fix bullet holes: Spain’s far left is divided on issues like Catalan independence and compete for voters locally. The bad blood is personal too: Sumar and Podemos leaders have spent years feuding and don’t seem ready to bury the hatchet.

Tick-tock: Broad Front figurehead Ada Colau has offered to step aside as a candidate and change the coalition’s name to secure a deal. Friday’s deadline could force a breakthrough — but voters may wonder how parties that cannot agree on a coalition could govern together. Monedero said a compromise “would take a miracle — and these aren’t times for miracles.”

DASHBOARD

SÁNCHEZ’S HOUSING GAMBIT: The Spanish PM is betting on housing as his ticket for reelection. But results of a POLITICO Poll, exclusively reported in Wednesday’s Madrid Playbook, show that’s not a straightforward path to electoral victory.

It’s a crisis: The poll, carried out in September before the eruption of nationwide housing protests and the announcement of November’s snap election, shows two-thirds of Spaniards already considered the availability and cost of housing to be a crisis. Another 23% said it was “bad, but not a crisis.”

Moncloa’s responsibility: A majority of respondents also said Spain’s central government — which Sánchez has led since 2018 — was responsible for making sure everyone has a place to live (72%), keeping housing costs low (67%) and keeping rents low (61%).

BRUSSELS, TAKE NOTE

MARINE LE PENNY-PINCHER: French presidential front-runner Marine Le Pen will speak to reporters in Brussels tonight after a meeting with leaders from the far-right Patriots group. Expect Le Pen to outline her EU platform and call for massive spending cuts in the bloc’s budget.

BARGAINING CHIP: Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to reduce France’s contribution to the EU, but isn’t including a reduction in his budget forecasts for now. Mélenchon wants to use the French contribution as leverage to negotiate a revision of European treaties, his deputy on economic affairs Eric Coquerel said.

WE GOT YOU: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will head to Downing Street in the late afternoon to see U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham, as London reiterates its “rock-solid” support for Kyiv in an echo of former PM Keir Starmer’s famous hug with the Ukrainian leader after his Oval Office showdown. Zelenskyy will also have an audience with King Charles III.

TAINTED BY ASSOCIATION: Greece’s opposition parties are seizing on the resignation of U.S. Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle as a possible election issue before next year’s election, accusing the government of failing to protect national interests. They are also calling for an investigation into allegations of improper financial relations involving Greek businesspeople.

ABOUT FACE: Latvian PM Andris Kulbergs was forced into a U-turn Tuesday, admitting he cannot legally impose an announced 300% tariff on transited Russian grain exported via Latvian ports. The risk of a court case costing hundreds of millions of euros is too high, Latvian national broadcaster LSM reported. Kulbergs will bring up the issue at this week’s EUCO.

BRUSSELS, GET IT TOGETHER: German Family Minister Karin Prien is presenting her plans to strengthen protections for children online to the cabinet today. Under the plan, children under 13 would generally be barred from using social media. The German government also wants to push for an EU-wide minimum age of 13, a ban on addictive design features and recommendation algorithms to be switched off by default.

INTEL FEARS: Concerns are mounting in Kyiv over U.S. threats to cut Ukraine’s access to intelligence reporting. When this happened last year, the cost was “high, measured in human lives,” said former Ukrainian PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk. “At this stage, there is no genuine, fully equivalent substitute for U.S. intelligence,” he told Playbook Capitals.

BANKING ON TROUBLE: Portuguese authorities raided the Lisbon offices of Angolan-owned Banco Angolano de Investimento Europa on Wednesday over suspected property-transfer tax fraud. The raids revive longstanding concerns over illicit financial flows between Portugal and Angola, which was added to the EU’s high-risk list for money laundering in 2025.

BROADCAST DOWN: Turkish police raided pro-opposition channel Halk TV this morning, halting live broadcasts and detaining 11 individuals. The move comes amid the fracture of the country’s opposition and a fresh media crackdown. “Not happy with controlling 90% of media, [authorities] are aiming for the 100%,” wrote European Parliament Turkey rapporteur Nacho Sánchez Amor on X.

AMNESTY APPLIED: Spain’s Court of Auditors on Wednesday absolved Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont and 34 other former officials of the alleged misuse of EU cash to fund the region’s 2017 independence referendum. Applying Spain’s amnesty law, the court said there was no evidence the public cash used for the vote had any relation to, or impact on, the bloc’s budget.

COMMUTER CORNER

EXPECT: No scheduled delays on public transit today, but plan ahead as tomorrow’s EUCO will disrupt bus lines 36, 59, 60 and 80 and metro access at Schuman station.

Meloni and Merz both delivered speeches in their respective legislatures today, so our recommendations are all about bringing Italy and Germany together.

READ THIS: Ever wonder why Germany seems to be obsessed with 1980s Italo-pop? The Guardian’s Angelica Frey has the answer.

LISTEN TO THIS: Curious about what that sounds like? German Italo-disco band Crucchi Gang has you covered.

WATCH THIS: That incredible scene from “Inglourious Basterds” where Brad Pitt’s Lt. Aldo Raine “speaks” Italian to Christoph Waltz’s SS Col. Hans Landa. (In fact, just head to your preferred streamer and watch the whole movie.)

LEFT IN THE LURCH? HEAD TO THIS: Ancienne Belgique is hosting a night of Afrofuturism, screening the documentary “Sun Ra: Do the Impossible.” Sign up here.

IMO: Italy’s beautiful red Frecciarossa or Italo high-speed trains are a lot better than the French TGV or what used to be the Thalys — Giorgio Leali, economy and trade reporter, writing from a Paris-Brussels Eurostar where power outlets don’t work and Wi-Fi is slow as usual.

TALK TO PLAYBOOK: Feel the same? Email us at capitalsteam@politico.eu to share your Brussels takes.

EURO-CURIO

SHACKLE AND AWE: Under the Ancien Régime, homeowners who hosted Spain’s king on his travels would be given chains to display on their façades as a mark of royal favor. Iron cuffs still adorn historic houses in towns like Sonseca and Miranda de Ebro, where kings Charles III and Ferdinand VII, respectively, spent the night in the 18th and 19th centuries. Alas, the custom has long since faded, which means the management of Ceuta’s Parador — which is hosting Felipe VI during his visit to the Spanish exclave this week — will have to settle for a selfie instead of a set of royal shackles.

**A message from YouTube: Creators aren’t just stars – they’re entrepreneurs. In 2025, YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed over €8.4 billion to the EU’s GDP, and supported more than 220,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our revenue-sharing model, which pays eligible creators more than half the revenue generated from their channels, means they can invest their income directly into production from Europe. But too often they are isolated from having a say in their own future. So we asked them directly. Our new report, “Creative Capital”, takes the thoughts of 20,000 Creators from all 27 EU Member States and distils them into five practical steps to unlock this creative potential – building a European creator economy that competes with any region in the world. The recommendations include recognising creators in official data; opening up industry support; investing in modern skills; expanding funding and physical spaces – and protecting open discovery. Read more here.**

Playbook is brought to you by POLITICO’s Capitals team: Leyla Aksu, James Angelos, Joshua Berlinger, Bartosz Brzeziński, Clea Caulcutt, Hanne Cokelaere, Stephan Faris, Victor Goury-Laffont, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Giorgio Leali, Veronika Melkozerova, Nette Nöstlinger, Christian Oliver, Hannah Roberts, Tim Ross, Marion Solletty, Nektaria Stamouli, Koen Verhelst, Katie Westwood and producer Jo Shaw.

Source: Politico

Albanian PM condemns 'chaos' as violent protests enter third day

Police responded with tear gas and water cannons and detained several demonstrators.

Protesters and police clashed in Albania’s capital Tirana on Thursday for the third consecutive day, as Prime Minister Edi Rama condemned the “chaos” following violent protests that damaged government buildings.

“We will all get through these difficult hours together because Albania will continue to climb, because Albania will continue on its path to Europe,” Rama said in a video message, referring to Albania’s EU accession bid, which the European Commission aims to conclude by 2027.

“No one can grab Albania by the throat. Anyone who thinks the law does not apply to them is mistaken.”

Students demanding education reforms have joined wider anti-government protests calling for Prime Minister Edi Rama’s resignation over corruption allegations.

The latest clashes followed Wednesday’s riots, when protesters attacked government buildings, banks and businesses, leaving 89 people injured, including 61 police officers, according to the Health Ministry.

“We will be in the square every day,” Mateo Yskollari, a prominent protest organizer, wrote in an online post. “Our response to any attempt to silence us will be to expand the protest, civil mobilization, and disobedience.”

For more than four months, thousands have protested against a luxury tourism project linked to Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner, which has become a symbol of alleged corruption and inequality in Albania.

Political reactions

The opposition Democratic Party backed the student protests and called on Rama to form a caretaker government ahead of early elections.

“This movement is not simply a protest against the government,” the party said. “It’s a revolt against a model of government created by Edi Rama that has stolen hope from young people, violated citizens’ trust and is increasingly distancing Albania from its European future.”

Rama’s Socialist Party won a fourth consecutive election victory last year, with the next parliamentary elections not scheduled until 2029.

Meanwhile, a European Union delegation in Albania called late Wednesday for a proportionate response from authorities, expressing concern at “the violent escalation at the protest in Tirana.”

“We call on protesters to exercise restraint and to refrain from any acts of violence. Violence has no place in democracies,” it said in a statement.

Source:Euronews

The lesson from Brazil

By JACK BLANCHARD

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Welcome to POLITICO Forecast. This is Jack Blanchard. Drop me a line.

5 THINGS THAT MATTERED TODAY

— Leftists celebrated — and markets crashed — after Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s stunning election victory …

— … to which Donald Trump responded: “It looked like another rigged election.”

— Meta announced plans to raise $95 billion to support its data center ambitions.

— Officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met with Iranian counterparts in effort to prevent new hostilities in the U.S.-Iran war.

— Anthropic published a 300-page prospectus ahead of what could be the largest IPO of all time.

THE NEXT NEWS CYCLE

Brazillian presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil celebrates his election win on Oct. 25, 2026 in São Paulo, Brazil. |Rodrigo Paiva/Getty Images

SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM: In U.S. politics, the concept of an “October surprise” has taken on a mythical quality — the unforeseen, last minute event that upends a November election. (Non-American readers should consider the Iran hostage crisis of 1976, or the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails in 2016.)

In a global sense, the October surprise of 2026 has turned out to be something much more elementary, if no less unexpected. It’s the global left — not the right — that’s having a moment.

This was not on anyone’s 2026 bingo card. Yes, the polls had tightened in Brazil in the runup to yesterday’s presidential runoff. But last night’s stunning victory for leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over his opponent, the far right nepo-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, was a genuine jaw-dropper. Never in the history of Brazilian democracy has a presidential candidate come from behind to claim a second-round victory.

The scale of that shock has played out on global markets today, as investors take flight at the prospect of four more years of Lula’s sky-high spending. The Brazilian real slid more than 10% against the dollar, while the country’s main stock index fell 17%.

But the global left could not care less. “Long live democracy — the people of Brazil won.” cheered Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. “The people united will never be defeated!” chanted Zohran Mamdani, the socialist mayor of New York City. “The global progressive comeback has just begun,” predicted Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez, facing his own election battle with conservative and far-right opponents next month.

Could he be right? In Serbia, too, the far-right had a dreadful night. The student-led protest movement that we chronicled in Forecast last week easily ousted Aleksandar Vučić, the pro-Russian populist who has led Serbia with an iron fist for 12 years.

This was not a victory for the left per se — the Serbian ‘student list’ is a non-partisan movement focused on vanquishing corruption — but it was most certainly a hammer blow for the right. Tellingly, Europe’s liberal leaders are thrilled, just as they were with the ouster of pro-Russian autocrat Viktor Orbán in neighboring Hungary earlier this year.

For all their differences, the results in Brazil and Serbia — and indeed in Hungary back in April — share one key aspect: Mass voter turnout.

Lula’s fans came out in far higher numbers than expected. Almost three million more Brazilians voted yesterday than in the first round on Oct. 4, making for the highest turnout figure — almost 81% — in a presidential runoff in 20 years.

Turnout in Serbia’s parliamentary election yesterday was the highest in 34 years, up a whopping 10 percentage points on the last election in 2023. And turnout in Hungary in April was the highest since democracy was restored in 1989, following the collapse of communism.

Donald Trump and his alliesare deeply unhappy with the results in Brazil. That’s hardly surprising: the links between the Trump and Bolsonaro camps are well documented, and loyal MAGA supporters have spent the day amplifying Bolsonaro’s claims of electoral fraud.

But they might pause to consider the broader theme that’s playing out. In a highly polarized world, it’s voter turnout that drives election victories. And the sight of broad political coalitions galvanizing supporters en masse on leftist and anti-corruption tickets does not bode well for U.S. Republicans, eight days out from the midterms.

History tells us Trump’s supporters were already less likely to show up when the president is not on the ballot. And this year, Republicans face a clear enthusiasm gap between their own 2024 voters and the Democrats’. Endless polls have documented how Latinos and other swing groups — even some MAGA Republicans — have grown deeply disenchanted with Trump. Political corruption has soared up the list of U.S. voter concerns. If either side can galvanize an unexpectedly large turnout on Nov. 3, it’s more likely to be the Dems.

How much farther could the misery stretch for the global right? Another liberal bête noire, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faces voters in his own knife-edge election tomorrow, still ensnared in his own corruption scandal. His opponent, former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, is untainted by years in power. The result looks too close to call.

But liberals getting too carried away should glance a little further ahead. Pedro Sánchez may believe that Spanish voters will copy their Brazilian counterparts by swinging left in next month’s general election, but precious few observers would agree. After eight years in power Sánchez faces his own enthusiasm gap with voters, and his own corruption scandals. There’s little sign that the prospect of the Spanish far-right in government will be enough to trigger massive voter turnout on his behalf.

A similar story is playing out in France, where enthusiasm for centrist policies has all but died away under President Emmanual Macron — boosting far-right leader Marine Le Pen. French polls show Le Pen becoming normalized, no more disliked by the average voter than her centrist opponents. The prospect of a massive anti-Le Pen movement seems less likely than in previous elections. The global leftmight be enjoying a moment, but there are far harder battles to come.

FUTURE INTELLIGENCE

KEEPING DEMOCRATS AWAKE: U.S. Democrats seemingly on the cusp of delivering a significant defeat to President Trump in next week’s midterm elections have two nagging fears. First — what if the polls are wrong? And if they’re not — how will Trump respond in the aftermath?

Anger will surely be a part of it. Everyone expects the president to lash out at those he deems responsible for a bad night for the GOP, with Republican lawmakers and failed candidates high on the list. A mea culpa over his decision to go to war with Iran seems somewhat less likely.

But liberal fears are centered around the prospect of Trump taking issue with the results themselves. Still scarred by the events of Jan. 6, 2021, the question being whispered by many Democrats is how far the U.S. president might go this time.

There’s no clear answer on that. Claims of election-rigging seem likely, given Trump frequently makes such statements when votes don’t go his way. The habit extends way beyond his presidential defeat in 2020 — earlier this summer, Trump was claiming the Los Angeles mayoral primary was rigged. Today he said the same about Brazil’s election.

Spouting off is one thing; taking meaningful action quite another. But Trump’s recent moves are making Democrats nervous. “Anybody reporting Voter Fraud in the past Elections, or the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election, will be paid $1,000,000 upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the Fraud,” the president announced on Truth Social today.

On Friday his Department of Justice filed a legal complaint in the battleground state of Alaska, complaining that one of the independent candidates has the same name as the Republican Senate nominee. It calls for certification of Alaska’s results to be delayed, should Democrats win.

There’s no way of knowing how far Trump might go. In the end, he’s not on the ballot this time, and will remain president regardless of the results. And of course, the U.S. electoral system proved sturdy enough to withstand the extraordinary tests of Jan. 6. But given all the history, U.S. liberals won’t rest easy until long after polling day next week

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I began my studies during an era of light, and you begin your studies in an era of darkness.”

— Finnish President Alexander Stubb addresses students at his alma mater, warning about the collapse of a rules-based world order.

HARD POWER: A FORMER PM SPEAKS

Former Israeli Prime Minister Olmert speaks to the media.| Gali Tibbon-Pool/Getty Images

Could tomorrow’s Israeli elections be the trigger for peace in the Middle East?

That’s highly unlikely, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert tells POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

Even after the elections — shaping up as a two-way fight between rival coalitions led by PM Netanyanu and former IDF chief Eisenkot — there still won’t be domestic political space for serious peace negotiations with the Palestinians, or for Israeli Jews to embrace a two-state solution, Olmert says.

Only two people could change the dynamic, Olmert adds. “One is Trump. If he decides, regardless of who’s in power in Israel — Bibi or Gadi — and wants to be recognized and remembered as a peacemaker rather than as a war-maker, he could say, ‘Listen, enough is enough. You either sit down and start talking business, or forget about me — and that means forget about America, forget about many things that you now get from America.’”

The other person, reckons Olmert, is Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. If he came to the Knesset as Egypt’s Anwar Sadat did in 1977 and said in his case — “‘Don’t be afraid of us. We want to live with you, but can’t unless you make peace with your neighbors, with the Palestinians, go and make peace with them’…Well, some things make a difference. After Sadat’s trip there was comprehensive peace between Israel and Egypt, and it has already survived more than 40 years.” In the case of MBS, he said, the prize would be economic development, and the chance to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.

SOFT POWER: ORBÁN’S NEXT ACT?

In Donald Trump’s Washington, what does the next leader of the United Nations look like? Here’s one idea: Viktor Orbán.

The White House is encouraging Hungary’s former strongman leader to enter the U.N. secretary-general race, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. As one of Trump’s “true friends” and close political allies, Orbán is the MAGA dream pick for the job. And he’s racked up support from China and Russia, according to the Journal — meaning he’s backed by the three biggest world powers on the U.N. Security Council.

But Europe’s leaders are recoiling at the thought.

“I am certain that Viktor Orbán, as UN Secretary-General, would put to good use the masterful veto and blackmail skills he has developed over years of derailing major EU decisions,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed the report as a “funny” rumor.

The security council’s five permanent members — the U.S., China, Russia, France and the U.K. — must unanimously endorse a new secretary-general candidate. Before making a formal recommendation, which the broader assembly then approves, the member nations privately voice their opinions via informal straw polls. The last time a candidate was officially vetoed was back in 1996.

Would France and the U.K. really allow one of Europe’s chief antagonists to lead the world’s largest multilateral body? It seems unlikely, though it’s been 37 years since either nation directly used their veto power for any resolution, policy decision or secretary-general candidate. Expect fierce negotiations behind the scenes in the weeks ahead. See you tomorrow.

TUESDAY’S AGENDA

— Israel holds its first legislative election since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, with polls suggesting the result is too close to call.

— President Trump holds two midterm election rallies in Texas, a key battleground state in next week’s midterm elections.

— The U.S. Federal Reserve board meets ahead of Wednesday’s interest rates decision. Markets expect no change to the baseline rate.

Reach out with news, tips and ideas at forecast@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Source: Politico

Israel votes in a pivotal election but no clear winner emerges

Angela Skujins • EU correspondent • October 28, 2026

Good morning. It’s Wednesday and my name is Angela Skujins. In today’s newsletter: A new yet unclear era of Israeli politics, saying “do widzenia” to a Polish ambassador, and why energy is the chink in Europe’s defence armour. Let’s go

Elections in Israel: Key legislative elections in Israel show incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu standing ahead of the opposition Wednesday morning after 50% of votes have been counted. This is according to figures from the Central Elections Committee. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 56 of the 120 seats in the parliament, compared with 49 for the opposition bloc and 15 for the Arab parties.

Eylon Levy, former Israeli government spokesperson, just said on Europe Today that there are three options facing the political elite: form a unity government, form a minority government, or fresh elections. “All of those are going to require someone to surrender on some very serious coalition promises.” Watch.

What is likely to come next is weeks of wrangling among parties to form a governing coalition and declare a new prime minister. In the meantime, Netanyahu remains as interim caretaker head of the government.

What is clear is that the country remains deeply divided over Netanyahu’s leadership and remains damaged by the Hamas-led 7 October attacks and the wars that have since shaken the Middle East.

Phone a friend: The leaders of Finland and Norway spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone for 90-minutes on Tuesday to restart the peace process. According to statements, the two leaders urged Putin to end the full-scale invasion and engage in meaningful negotiations to reach a stable, peaceful settlement.

As my colleague Jorge Liboreiro reports, that chat was followed by a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who thanked the duo for their “active” support and called for de-escalatory steps. (More analysis of the play-by-play below).

What is important to highlight now is that the Stubb-Støre move comes as the European Commission and the European Council prepare a joint team of senior officials to be sent to the next round of talks.

As Sasha Vakulina writes, Russia, Ukraine and the US could meet in Abu Dhabi on 4 November for talks. That’s according to an announcement by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Tuesday.

According to Tusk, the provisional date emerged as European leaders coordinated diplomatic efforts with Kyiv and Washington ahead of possible negotiations. What’s interesting is that this is occurring one day after the US midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday 3 November.

The timing raises questions about what comes next for Washington’s efforts to end Moscow’s war.

For those uninitiated: The midterms matter because they occur in the middle of a president’s four-year term and determine the composition of the two chambers of Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives.

The vote not only offers an opportunity for citizens to elect lawmakers — Republican or Democrat, for example — but also serves as a temperature check on a president’s term in office. For US President Donald Trump, this is a mandate pockmarked by trade wars, hostility towards Ukraine, and a retreat from the transatlantic security architecture. Can the damage from the last 24-months be undone at the ballot box?

Keith Brannum, Truman National Security Project fellow and strategist, just told Europe Today that this Congress has been “subservient” to Trump. Democrats, however, have been “very vocal” about holding the president to account. “We are in uncertain times,” he said, with no clear projection of the future. Watch.

Brussels news: Polish ambassador Agnieszka Bartol will depart Brussels to take a cabinet position at Tusk’s government in Warsaw. She will remain his sherpa, having built on years of experience where she cut a reputation of smooth operator and became a fan-favourite of journalists in the Belgian capital. Polish Andrzej Domański is poised to become the country’s next deputy prime minister.

More Brussels news: EU energy and defence commissioners Dan Jørgensen and Andrius Kubilius will today hold talks on energy security at the Berlaymont, bringing together stakeholders including NATO officials and industry heavyweights.

According to a leaked agenda obtained by my colleague Marta Pacheco, discussions will focus on EU fuel production for defence, particularly jet fuel output and logistics to meet a “potential demand surge”.

Caspar Hobhouse, a research analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies, said Europe’s militaries primarily rely on two fuel sources: jet fuel for aviation and diesel to serve as backup power for military bases. “In the case of a military conflict, the demand is enormous,” he told me.

‘Very, very short business’: Securing these fuel supplies is becoming more difficult due to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Without major replenishments, Europe’s current fuel reserves would leave it “very, very short business” in the event of armed aggression, Caspar said.

MEP Riho Terras, and former commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, welcomed the talks, warning that aggression is imminent and stressing the need for proper planning. “We have to be prepared,” he said, including for plan Bs. “In 2007 I served in Iraq, then the whole country experienced a very big shortage of energy, and we dealt a lot with diesel generators there. In times of war, you need to have backups,” Riho enthused.

Cash investment: A NATO spokesperson said it is “vital” that Europe’s fuel production capacity can support both civil and military demands, particularly during crises and conflicts. In July, allies approved a €27 billion NATO Fuel Supply Chain Capability Programme Plan, which includes pipelines along the alliance’s eastern and south-eastern corridors to ensure supplies for “warfighting readiness”.

So what will come out of the talks? Monitor Euronews for updates.

Life after Vučić: After 14-years of Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) rule, the status quo was shattered on Monday when election results rolled in and foretold a new era for the Western Balkan country. This is one predominantly without former president Aleksandar Vučić, a free press and a reset of EU relations.

In the days since the seismic election, onlookers have witnessed scenes unfold on social media, of the lead anchor from national broadcaster Radio Television of Vojvodina (RTV) apologising to viewers for the last decade of alleged one-sided reporting.

On Tuesday, European Council President António Costa even called Ilija Srdanović, the leader of the Student List political movement, to say that parliament and government is expected to be formed swiftly. On top of this, most importantly, he communicated that “Serbia’s place is in the European Union.”

Marko Prelec, Balkans expert at the International Crisis Group, just told Europe Today that the new political elite “clearly seek” better relations with Europe and the EU itself. But how this will actually materialise is yet to be seen. Watch.

As the EU attempts to find the right tenor when speaking with China to eradicate an eye-watering trade deficit, it seems that a French football star has irritated officials in Beijing.

Mao migraine: Top French footballer Kylian Mbappé has lost several of his biggest sponsorship deals in China after a video circulated online in which he appears to joke about Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China, that led to a backlash that he has now apologised for.

“My comment was ill-judged, and I now understand that it hurt many people in China and in Chinese communities around the world,” Mbappé said in a statement he published in French, Chinese and English on Tuesday. “I apologise to everyone that my words have upset.”

Ken Early, Irish football commentator, just told Europe Today that this is not the first time a political controversy has disrupted the activities on the pitch. “The German player Mesut Özil who played for Arsenal at the time, in 2019, posted on social media about the plight of the Uyghur people in China,” he said.

“In that instance, they said, ‘Okay, Arsenal won’t be on Chinese television anymore.” Watch.

After months dithering, Europe shows it’s ready for talks with Russia

After months of bickering, Europe is sending its strongest signals yet that it is ready to speak directly with Russia to end the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and decide the future of the continent’s security architecture.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre marched ahead and held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the imminent restart of the peace process.

Though Stubb and Støre lacked a mandate to speak on behalf of Europe — they did so as “leaders of their respective countries” — their overture on Tuesday immediately positioned the Nordic duo as preeminent interlocutors. In its read-out, the Kremlin said that the three had “agreed to maintain direct telephone contact in the future”.

The Stubb-Støre surprise move comes as the European Commission and the European Council prepare a joint team of senior officials to be sent to the next round of talks, scheduled to be held in Abu Dhabi in early November.

Is it notable that Brussels is openly stating its intention to hold the negotiations in a multilateral format, which would mean having Europeans, Ukrainians, Americans and Russians at the same table and at the same time. It is even more notable that Russia, rather than rejecting European presence, is now actively seeking it.

In his latest analysis, Jorge explains why Europe is more ready than ever to expand its diplomatic role and make its voice heard vis-a-vis Russia.

More from our newsrooms

Von der Leyen’s Canada ‘associate membership’ spurs battle of words with EU capitals. Last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a bombshell offer to Canada: to become the first EU “associate member”. Now the term is proving hard to swallow for several member states, including her own Germany. Luca Bertuzzi has the must-read information.

Norway says ‘successful’ cyberattacks against the country have tripled in last six months. The country’s National Security Authority said the rapid growth of artificial intelligence technology also posed a “serious risk” to Norwegian businesses and organisations. Read more of this story by Nathan Rennolds.

European disease control centre sends experts to Nigeria while Ebola cases surpass 10,000 in Congo. With the Ebola outbreak continuing to spread beyond the epicentre in the Democratic Republic of Congo — where it surpassed 10,000 cases — ECDC sent a team led by its senior expert in epidemic intelligence to Nigeria, the fourth African country to report an Ebola case. Giedre Peseckyte has the details.

We’re also keeping an eye on

Members of the European Parliament’s committee centred on civil liberties and justice will deliver a press conference in Hungary following a fact-finding mission.
European Commissioner for the Environment Jessika Roswall will be in Yerevan, Armenia for the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP17). She will deliver a press conference at 2:30 pm CET.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola continues her visit to Malta.
European Commissioner for Justice Michael McGrath speaks at the meeting of the Freeze and Seize Taskforce.

That’s it for today. Jorge Liboreiro and Sasha Vakulina contributed to this newsletter.

Source: EuropeToday

Nvidia stock slides as company probes claims CEO was foreign intelligence target

By Angela Barnes

Published on 9 November 2026 – 11:16 GMT+1

Nvidia’s share price pre-market was in the red as investors follow updates on claims that one of its executives may have been a foreign intelligence target.

Nvidia stock was down 4.51% ahead of the US markets opening, as the company announced that its board had launched an “independent investigation” following reports that founder and CEO Jensen Huang may have been targeted in a foreign intelligence effort.

“A committee of independent directors, assisted by outside independent counsel, will oversee the investigation,” an Nvidia statement said on its website.

The company further highlighted that the board prioritises US national and economic security, which it said is “paramount to the interests of Nvidia” and its shareholders.

“While the board has no reason to believe that either national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, the board’s inquiry will examine all available information,” the company also noted.

“Jensen fully supports the review and has committed to cooperating with it.

“The board has confidence in Jensen and his leadership team and will provide further updates as appropriate,” Nvidia concluded.

Meanwhile, China denied on Monday there was a spy plot attempt to ensnare the Nvidia CEO, calling the spying allegations unsubstantiated and a smear campaign against Beijing.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, commented on the claims and potential market impact: “How boards view undisclosed CEO romantic relationships often depends on who is involved. Relationships with colleagues can raise conflicts of interest and favouritism concerns, while those outside the company are usually private unless they pose security, reputational or company-resource risks.

“Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang is in a precarious position, and the dial on his situation currently sits at ‘highest risk’. Personal scandals never sit well in the corporate world, let alone ones where the CEO is being investigated for an affair with a suspected foreign spy,” he said in a note sent to Euronews Business.

“Given pre-existing sensitivities around China accessing US technology, and various export restrictions already in place, Nvidia’s situation is going to be treated with intense scrutiny. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jensen Huang step aside on a temporary basis while an investigation takes place.

“Even if Jensen Huang is found not to have discussed any confidential information with the woman in question, the affair is not a good look for a company that prides itself on family-based cultural values. It’s plausible that Jensen Huang might decide to step down as CEO if he thinks the incident has tarnished the company’s reputation, as well as his own. Or the board might decide he has to go,” he added.

“Yet one could see why Nvidia’s board might be keen to back Jensen Huang and not lose him. He has been the architect of Nvidia’s success, making it the go-to place for advanced AI chips, and making shareholders seriously rich along the way. He is the face of Nvidia, and many shareholders big and small might prefer him to stay put if it means a continuation of the current strategy,” Coatsworth concluded.